What should Jets do with NFL Draft's No. 10 pick? Pros, cons of 3 dilemmas (2024)

The New York Jets’ starting lineup for 2024 looks great on paper — and in their new uniforms unveiled Monday. But GM Joe Douglas still needs to properly fill out the depth chart if this team, with Super Bowl aspirations, wants to break its 13-year playoff dry spell.

Douglas aced the free agency portion of the offseason, but next week brings the next big roster-building event: The NFL Draft.

The Jets’ draft positioning — No. 10 in the first round, with no second-round pick — might force Douglas to confront a few dilemmas on draft day, topics that have dominated the discourse among Jets fans on social media in recent weeks:

1. Whether to draft tight end Brock Bowers at No. 10.
2. Whether to draft an offensive lineman who would be starting his career as a backup.
3. Whether to trade back — or trade up — from No. 10.

Let’s dive into those dilemmas.

1. The Brock Bowers conundrum

The dilemma: Whether it’s a good idea to draft a tight end in the top 10, especially with the Jets’ depth concerns on the offensive line and at wide receiver.

“Do it” argument: There’s a feeling around the league that the Jets are targeting Bowers at No. 10, though nobody outside of Douglas’ circle really knows what he wants to do. To Douglas’ credit, he has done a good job of keeping the team’s offseason plans close to the vest.

Bowers took a top-30 visit to the Jets’ facility on Monday. That’s notable, but not necessarily a sign he’s even their top target. Bowers is probably the most realistic target, all things considered — need, talent, likelihood that he’s available at No. 10 — which is why many have been predicting him as the pick.

In terms of pure talent, it’s hard to argue with the Jets bringing him in. We’ll get into value in the next section, but Bowers is a legitimate weapon who should be able to make an impact right away. And that’s a key note: Bowers is more of a weapon than purely a tight end, which makes him such an intriguing fit. He can be paired with Tyler Conklin and/or Jeremy Ruckert, the Jets’ other tight ends, as well as be a movable chess piece in an offense with Garrett Wilson and (if healthy) Mike Williams.

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler ranks Bowers No. 7 overall in this draft class and I asked him how Bowers stacks up with the other first-round tight end prospects — Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson, Dalton Kincaid and Noah Fant — from the last few years. Brugler said Bowers would rank “pretty closely” with Pitts as “legit top-10, blue-chip prospects.”

“I think it’s important to point out that they’re different as players,” Brugler said. “Bowers gives you more as a blocker. Better versatility. Doesn’t have the same true speed as Pitts, but his speed is still well above average for the position.”

Brugler ranked Pitts as the second-best overall prospect in the 2021 draft class and Hockenson sixth overall in 2019.

Georgia had one of the nation’s best offenses in 2023, one built around Bowers’ skills. He was a three-time All-American, two-time Mackey Award winner and led Georgia in receiving in all three of his seasons. He split his career snaps between the slot (52.2 percent), inline tight end (36.6 percent) and out wide (9.5 percent). Conklin split his snaps almost evenly between the slot (337) and inline (371), though he’s not as athletic as Bowers — and Bowers projects as a better blocker, too.

He didn’t do athletic testing at the combine or Georgia’s pro day but, per Brugler, Bowers ran a 4.5-second 40-yard dash as a high school recruit in 2019.

The Jets had one of the least-productive — and least-creative — offenses in the NFL last season. They can’t be done adding weapons yet and if the top three receiver prospects — Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze — are off the board at No. 10, then Bowers is the next best available weapon.

As an added bonus, this pick would probably make Aaron Rodgers happy.

“Don’t do it” argument: Most of this argument is centered on value. In terms of the allocation of assets and finances, expending significant assets on the tight end position is generally frowned upon. That’s because there are so few game-changing stars at the position, and also because a No. 1 wide receiver is considered to be a much more valuable asset, especially in this draft position, than a tight end.

As The Athletic’s Austin Mock wrote on Bowers in March: “Even if he hits, teams aren’t squeezing as much value out of their top-10 pick as they would be if they hit on a player at a premium position.”

The reason: There is financial value in getting a potentially elite quarterback, wide receiver or offensive lineman on a rookie contract. Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud ranks 23rd in average salary at his position, for example. Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase, still on his rookie deal, ranks 34th.

If Bowers is selected at No. 10, his salary would average around $6 million per season, which would instantly put him among the 20 highest-paid tight ends.

Beyond the value part of the argument, there are some notable knocks against Bowers. He doesn’t have ideal length or the prototypical size for a tight end (he’s 6-feet-3, 243 pounds). A lack of testing numbers is also a concern, though tracking data makes those numbers a little less important.

Another argument against: Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett hasn’t shown much creativity as a play-caller over the years — and Bowers is the sort of weapon who requires creativity.

2. The O-line conundrum

The dilemma: The Jets have their starting five penciled in and just drafted a part-time player last year in defensive end Will McDonald, who barely played as a rookie.

“Do it” argument: The Jets had an unreal number of injuries on the offensive line the last two years. Last season, the Jets started 12 different linemen, some of them signed off the street or practice squad. It was a disaster.

Douglas upgraded the starting unit by bringing in Tyron Smith at left tackle, John Simpson at left guard and Morgan Moses at right tackle. Center Joe Tippmann should make strides in Year 2 and right guard Alijah Vera-Tucker should be healthy.

But depth remains an issue, as does reliability. Smith has missed 37 games over the last four years, Moses is coming off pectoral surgery and Vera-Tucker has suffered early season-ending injuries in back-to-back years.

Veteran Wes Schweitzer is the top interior backup and he missed most of last season with injuries. Second-year tackle Carter Warren missed all of training camp with injuries and is unproven even if healthy. Max Mitchell can play guard and tackle but struggled last season.

Douglas needs reinforcements. The Jets need to invest in a quality offensive lineman to bring in as insurance, maybe as early as pick No. 10. Tackle prospects Taliese Fuaga, Olu Fashanu and J.C. Latham are all talented enough to even push Moses for the starting job at right tackle. Washington’s Troy Fautanu has the flexibility to play any spot on the line, a la Vera-Tucker.

“Don’t do it” argument: It’s tough to criticize the idea of adding more offensive linemen, but it still might be difficult to stomach using another first-round pick on a player who might not actually play much — especially in a win-now year.

Another thing to consider: The adjustment to the NFL from college might be harder for offensive linemen than for players at any other position. Many aren’t ready to contribute as rookies, and the Jets need players ready to help right away, especially if they’re going to play left tackle. As an example: Giants left tackle Andrew Thomas struggled as a rookie but developed into an All-Pro in future years. This Jets regime can’t afford to wait.

3. The trading conundrum

The dilemma: Whether it’s worth passing on a top-10 prospect to add a second-round pick — or worth digging into future assets to trade up and get a star wide receiver.

“Do it” argument: Let’s start with the trade-back portion: Douglas has never actually traded back in the first round, though he looked into it in 2023. If he were ever going to make a move back, though, this is the year to do it.

The Jets sent their second-round pick to the Green Bay Packers last year as part of the Rodgers trade, so after No. 10, they won’t pick again until No. 72 in the third round. The challenge is finding a willing trade partner. That will be much easier if one of the top quarterbacks — Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels or J.J. McCarthy — falls to No. 10, though that feels unlikely at this juncture. Odunze, Harrison or Nabers might motivate a trade up, but the Jets might want to pick one of those players for themselves — same for Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt. Offensive linemen and edge rushers are other potential trade-up targets for teams behind the Jets in the order.

Last year, the Eagles traded up one pick from No. 10 to No. 9 to draft defensive tackle Jalen Carter, giving up a fourth-round pick. The Steelers traded up from No. 17 to No. 14 to get tackle Broderick Jones, giving up a fourth-round pick.

In 2022, the Saints moved up from No. 16 to No. 11 to get wide receiver Chris Olave, giving up a third- and fourth-round pick. That same year, the Lions moved up from No. 32 to No. 12 for receiver Jameson Williams and gave up a second- and third-round pick, also getting back a second-rounder.

In 2021, the Eagles moved up from No. 12 to No. 10 to get receiver DeVonta Smith and gave up a third-round pick. The Bears moved from No. 20 to No. 11 to get quarterback Justin Fields and gave up a fifth-round pick and future first- and fourth-round picks.

So unless a team is looking to move up pretty far in the order, the Jets are more likely to get another third-round pick than a second this year.

As for trading up: That would presumably be to get Harrison, Nabers or Odunze if they fell far enough. The Jets have a third, two fourth-round picks, a sixth and two seventh-rounders, as well their first five picks in 2025, to offer in a trade.

“Don’t do it” argument: If the Jets trade out of the top 10, they risk missing out on drafting a potential star. I think back to the Giants in 2021. They traded back from No. 11 when Micah Parsons, Rashawn Slater and Vera-Tucker were all on the board. They picked Kadarius Toney later in the first and used those future picks on Evan Neal and Daniel Bellinger.

Trading up for a top receiver next week would mean depleting future draft capital, but that’s probably not a real concern for Douglas or coach Robert Saleh, both on the hot seat. Plus, adding a star receiver on a rookie deal is great value, especially as Wilson becomes eligible for a new deal after the 2024 season and with Williams set to hit free agency in 2025.

(Top photo of Brock Bowers: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)