Parish by Parish - Chance of Louisiana Hurricane Landfall in 2024 (2024)

Residents of Coastal Louisiana from the Sabine River on the Texas line to the Pearl River where Louisiana and Mississippi meet will likely be on edge at some time over the next six months. The reason for our summertime anxiety? Hurricanes, tropical storms, and all the carnage that comes with them.

Every major forecast outlet that makes a prediction on tropical weather has stated that Hurricane Season 2024 could be one for the record books. NOAA just recently offered their outlook for the season and if that forecast is even close to being right many coastal communities across the Gulf South and Eastern Seaboard are going to be spending some time with "Storm Bae" Jim Cantore. If you know, you know.

And while it's true we can't keep Jim Cantore from showing up where you live and work we'd like to offer you the odds, based on data from Colorado State University, where he is most likely to show up in Louisiana during this hurricane season.

The folks at CSU have broken it down by parish. There are 11 coastal parishes in Louisiana and here is the probability that your parish will be affected by a named storm, a hurricane, or a major hurricane in 2024.

First, let's look at the numbers for Louisiana's coastline in general. According to CSU, there is an 84% probability a named storm will impact the Louisiana coastline. The probability of a hurricane impacting Louisiana's coast is 56% and the probability of a major hurricane, that's a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale, is listed at 23%.

Lousiana Landfall Probabilities: Parish By Parish Hurricane Season 2024

Cameron Parish was one of the hardest-hit parishes in 2020. Many residents of southwest Louisiana are still recovering from Hurricanes Laura and Delta which made landfall within a few miles of each other. Here's how CSU views Cameron Parish's landfall probability in 2024.

The probability of a named storm impact is 47%. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in Cameron Parish is 24% while the probability of major hurricane landfall is listed at 8%.

Iberia Parish which felt the wrath of Hurricane Andrew in 1992 has a named storm landfall probability of 51% according to Colorado State. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in Iberia Parish is 26% and the major hurricane probability is 8%

Jefferson Parish, one of Louisiana's most populated parishes has named storm landfall probability of 56% during the 2024 season. The probability of a hurricane making landfall in the parish is 31%. Major hurricane probability in Jefferson Parish is listed at 9%.

Lafourche Parish, or as we call it, "down the bayou" has a named storm impact probability of 58%. The probability of that named storm being a hurricane is 33%. The probability the storm will cross the coast in Lafourche Parish as a major hurricane is listed at 9%.

Orleans Parish is another densely populated parish in Louisiana. The named storm impact probability for that urbanized area of the state is listed at 48%. The hurricane impact probability is 24% according to the CSU data. The major hurricane impact probability in Orleans Parish is 7%

Plaquemines Parish is tied for the highest probability in the state of having a named storm make landfall within its boundaries. That probability is listed at 62%. The hurricane probability is 35% and the major hurricane impact probability was posted at 11% for the 2024 Hurricane Season.

St. Bernard Parish took a beating in 2005 from Hurricane Katrina and the probability that the parish could see a major hurricane making a land fall is listed at 13%. The named storm probability is 59% and the probability that the landfalling storm is a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane is 33%.

St. Mary Parish where the Atchafalaya River meets the Gulf of Mexico has a 52% probability of a named storm making landfall along its coast in 2024. The hurricane probability is 28% for St. Mary Parish while the probability of a major hurricane making landfall in St Mary is listed at 7%.

St. Tammany Parish which also took quite a punch from Katrina in 2005 has a named storm probability of 51%. The probability that the landfalling system is a hurricane in St. Tammany is 25%. The prospect of that storm being a major hurricane is 7% for those who live and work near Slidell in one of the easternmost parts of our state.

Terrebonne Parish where the swamp oozes into the ocean shares the highest probability of a named storm landfall with Plaquemines Parish at 62%. The probability of that named storm being a hurricane is listed at 34% while the major hurricane probability is listed at 10% by the researchers at Colorado State University.

Vermillion Parish despite its long stretch of Gulf-front property has only a 47% probability of a named storm making landfall. Vermilion and Cameron share the lowest landfall probabilities of any Louisiana parishes along the coast. The hurricane impact probability in Vermilion is 25% while the major hurricane probability is posted at 8% for the 2024 season.

Here is the complete list of coastal parishes and counties included in the Colorado State Tropical Cyclone Impact Probability report. They cover them all from Maine to Texas so if you have summer travel plans you might want to take a look at what forecasters are thinking for the Outer Banks of North Carolina, the beaches of Florida, and the western edge of the Gulf of Mexico in Texas.

Editor's Note:The percentages you see listed are based on math and scientific observations. These are not official forecasts and should not be considered as such in making plans where the safety of life and property is concerned.